Во-первых, нужно поговорить про аниме-либертарианцев (транскрипта нет; райт клик -> открыть в новом окне, если картинка слишком маленькая):

Я зачитываю 2-3 пункта, мы их обсуждаем, я зачитываю следующие 2-3 пункта и так далее.




Дипломатический ад.

Things are not going well for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. In late February he flew down to the Russian Black Sea resort town of Sochi to participate in the annual investment forum, but was snubbed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who refused to meet with him.

Cripple fight.

In a series of mutual gut punches, Belarus unilaterally put up transit tariffs for oil transiting its territory, while Moscow reduced oil deliveries to its neighbour by 40%, which has done real economic damage.

The Belarusian economy declined in January by 0.5% year-on-year instead of a forecasted growth of 1% due to the cut in crude oil supplies from Russia, Prime Minister Andrei Kobyakov told the cabinet on February 21. «A year ago we refined 0.8mn tonnes of oil more [than in January 2017]. This resulted in a 3.3-percentage-point decline in industry and 4.5-percentage-point decline in wholesale trade,» Interfax news agency quoted Kobyakov as saying. «As a result, 1.5% of GDP was lost. That is, if oil supplies were the same as last year, GDP would have grown 1% in January.»

У Лукашоида какие-то странные представления о госдеятельности:

In late October, Lukashenko even publicly urged his government «to stop talking about the need for reforms» of his country’s battered economy. «Without order and discipline, especially now, we will not be able to make progress,» Lukashenko added.

Путлин просрал белорусские полимеры:

The economics are a problem, but what has really driven the wedge between Moscow and Minsk is Lukashenko’s refusal to support Putin in his fight with the West, and it seems that he is making a genuine effort to loosen ties with Moscow and improve them with Brussels.

This has shown up in many ways. Most obvious have been the political concessions; Minsk released its political prisoners thanks to US prompting and allowed two opposition politicians to enter parliament in the last elections. For these acts Brussels withdrew most of its sanctions on Belarus, imposed after the government brutally cracked down on rioters following rigged 2010 parliamentary elections. But despite the improving climate these reconciliations have had no beneficial impact on the Belarusian economy.

Meanwhile, Lukashenko seems to have gone out of his way to poke Putin in the eye. At the start of the Ukraine conflict with Russia, Lukashenko reached out with supportive words to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and Belarus has refused to recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea. More recently Minsk balked at the establishment of a Russian airbase at Bobruisk and then unilaterally dropped visa requirements for 80 countries despite having an open border with Russia that requires visas for almost all these nationals.

У России есть определенные рычаги влияния (которыми мы, скорее всего, не воспользуемся). Зог не дремлет:

Belarus can probably muddle through for the moment, but Russia is now in a position to trigger the collapse of the Belarusian economy simply by turning the oil and gas spigots a bit more or delaying the next bail-out tranche for a few more months. At the same time, there is a chance, albeit slim, that another round of domestic protests could radicalise and turn into a coloured revolution that ousts Lukashenko. As these possibilities are starting to look increasingly real, academics are calling for Europe to get ready.

“The EU’s current, post-sanctions policy of technocratic ‘go-slow’ re-engagement with Belarus is a fair weather policy. The time may be ripe, however, to start thinking about the previously unthinkable, be it economic collapse in Belarus, radical internal transformations or an externally-triggered crisis. All of these scenarios would require a much higher level of preparedness, commitment and resources from Europe,” Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs said in a recent paper entitled “One Year after the Sanctions: Is Europe ready for the Belarus crisis?”


Vault 7.


Key Highlights from the Vault 7 release so far:

«Year Zero» introduces the scope and direction of the CIA’s global covert hacking program, its malware arsenal and dozens of «zero day» weaponized exploits against a wide range of U.S. and European company products, include Apple’s iPhone, Google’s Android and Microsoft’s Windows and even Samsung TVs, which are turned into covert microphones.

Wikileaks claims that the CIA lost control of the majority of its hacking arsenal including malware, viruses, trojans, weaponized «zero day» exploits, malware remote control systems and associated documentation. This extraordinary collection, which amounts to more than several hundred million lines of code, gives its possessor the entire hacking capacity of the CIA. The archive appears to have been circulated among former U.S. government hackers and contractors in an unauthorized manner, one of whom has provided WikiLeaks with portions of the archive.

By the end of 2016, the CIA’s hacking division, which formally falls under the agency’s Center for Cyber Intelligence (CCI), had over 5000 registered users and had produced more than a thousand hacking systems, trojans, viruses, and other «weaponized» malware. Such is the scale of the CIA’s undertaking that by 2016, its hackers had utilized more code than that used to run Facebook.

The CIA had created, in effect, its «own NSA» with even less accountability and without publicly answering the question as to whether such a massive budgetary spend on duplicating the capacities of a rival agency could be justified.

Once a single cyber ‘weapon’ is ‘loose’ it can spread around the world in seconds, to be used by rival states, cyber mafia and teenage hackers alike.